Dear Atlanta Falcons, Please Don’t Draft Matt Ryan 3rd

Photoshop of Matt Ryan holding a Falcons jersey at the draft

The Atlanta Falcons have the third pick in the 2008 NFL Draft that is being held in New York this weekend. Matt Ryan, the quarterback from Boston College has been tabbed as the most likely candidate to be drafted first among the quarterbacks eligible. Being that the Falcons have Chris “I was selling insurance a couple of years ago” Redman, Joey Harrington (cut then inexplicably re-signed cheaper), and local hero DJ Shockley, it would seem that the Falcons need to address the quarterback position. In fact it is apparent they will draft one, it is just uncertain when that will be.

I am not 100% sold on the fact that Michael Vick is not coming back to the Falcons to play football. I cannot treat the situation like the Cub fans did Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for years – expecting them to come back and be lights out. I did like how Redman played last year and was fond of Shockley before his injury. Harrington is nice enough but tried to give the job away to Byron Leftwich and ultimately Redman on numerous occasions. Him being back on the team is more surprising than Alge Crumpler, Warrick Dunn, DeAngelo Hall, Rod Coleman, and the others not being back on the team. It appears that Shockley will likely be the odd man out when the new QB is picked.

The Falcons need many things and are loaded with picks to get them in this draft. My hope is that they pass on the uncertain Ryan in favor of a defensive player like Glenn Dorsey and grab a quarterback later. There is a chance that Ryan could do a Brady Quinn fall and the Falcons could trade back up to get him then. Any of the second tier QB’s in the draft paired with Dorsey net a bigger gain then Ryan and anyone else in my opinion.

Also quarterback drafting is far from a science. This study (aimed at jabbing at Brett Favre’s replacement Aaron Rodgers) shows the high risks involved with drafting a quarterback in the first round (not to mention the ridiculous costs for players that have yet to touch the field).

3 thoughts on “Dear Atlanta Falcons, Please Don’t Draft Matt Ryan 3rd

  1. Oh, Pumpkin…so fragile.

    First, any person in the Falcons’ war room who mentions the name Michael Vick should be fired. He cannot factor into the equation whatsoever at this point. So try to patch up that broken heart and look forward, whether you’re sold on the concept or not.

    Second, check what Packers GM Ted Thompson said. “You can never have too many people, especially at the most important position in the National Football League.” It’s the hardest position in the league. Pretty much everyone agrees on that. There is inherent risk in drafting a QB because they have higher “failure” rates…even though the very task of comparing the success of a QB to the success of a DE is essentially impossible.

    Third, Matt Ryan is a stud and there is no objective basis to believe you’ll get more by drafting Dorsey + 2nd round QB than you would drafting Ryan + 2nd round DE. There are usually hundreds of players available in each draft who are capable of contributing.

    The draft is a crap shoot and always has been. That’s why guys who spend all their time studying the draft still get it wrong…A LOT. This topic is beaten into the turf every single season by teams drafting in the top 10 (and those who are not debating it are the ones who debated it last year or the year before). See?

    There’s no reason to shy away from the guy just because other teams have gotten burned by drafting a QB with a top 10 pick. To the Falcons, I say step up to the mike and draft what you need. If that’s a QB, go get him. High risk, high reward. Go get your money.

    Manning, Manning, Elway, Aikman, Kelly, Bradshaw, McNair, McNabb, Marino, Big Ben…good thing their teams weren’t scurred. It works enough to be worth the gamble. The hard thing is knowing when to gamble.

  2. 1) Look no further than the Official Atlanta Falcons Roster to see the name Michael Vick. He is still on the team (possibly just a technicality). Second, the team owner is sharing correspondence with the man and members of the Atlanta Franchise are visiting him with some level of regularity. Additionally, having a talent like that (currently incarcerated or otherwise) fits the quote attributed to the Packers GM to a T. We have this stud, 31 other teams CAN’T.

    2) That man allowed a QB flip-flop back and forth for the last few years that ultimately cost them more than a season by messing up their draft strategy. If Aaron “table for 6 NOW” Rodgers flops, who are these other QB’s he alludes to having? Craig Nall? He had the luxury of making a claim because of Chuck and Pray, he doesn’t follow it per se.

    3) Drafting Ryan at 3 would be far more costly. It would almost force the hand of the team… making it “Matt Ryan’s” team the second things get ugly (and they will). This may force him in early… a flop at the “FRANCHISE” qb spot would not be something we could recover from at this delicate point in time. (See George, Favre, Vick)… we have been over Andre Bruce for years.

    4) No doubt this is a proverbial dead horse and a crap shoot. But the question is: since we have numerous holes (QB one of them) is Ryan THE ONE that we need or is there a guy next year that is a better fit for us?

    5) For every list that you throw out of great QB’s (even the HOF ones not drafted in the last 20 years) I can submit two other lists: blown top 3 picks and later than early picks that hit

    Leaf, Drunkenmiller, Al. Smith, Ak. Smith, Couch, Carr, Harrington

    Brady, Hasselbeck, Feeley, Romo, Bulger

  3. Some of this true…but you originally rested your argument on the “don’t draft Ryan…we could get burned” argument.

    #1-he’s in prison and don’t know when he’s getting out…he’s not in the plan (yet)

    #2-Thompson has done nothing but good by the Packers. From 4-12 to division champs in his 3rd year. There was no flip-flop. He drafted Rodgers cuz he had to. Then 4 did his thing and Thompson had no choice but to play the HOFer.

    #3-heard

    #4-That’s not the standard for making the choice. There is never any way to know that a guy is THE ONE

    #5-heard, but…
    My point is not based on the failures because I know they are great and many. Given. But there are also colossal successes with high QB picks. And when you get it right, you’re set a the MDPF for 10 years…and that kind of security cannot be bought, traded for or swindled at any other position or in any other way than the draft. The Steelers, Colts, Giants and Titans are some of the few teams guaranteed to compete every season…in large part due to good/great QB play drafted in the top 10 (Eli is a bit of a stretch in spite of the ring). Like I said…high risk, high reward. If you think your team is not in the right position to play the high-stakes roulette, then don’t play. But don’t be scurred of the game because of the potential for failure.

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