Updated quote from Iowa Electronic Market: presidential nominees

For a brief explanation, see http://soupytrumpet.com/2008/02/15/track-your-candidates…

q 2-26-2008

IEM — 2008 Presidential Election Markets Quotes

Here we see that the market holds that Obama has a .79 chance of winning against Clinton, and McCain’s nomination is almost guaranteed with .93 chance.

Projection: McCain vs. Obama

Track your candidates with the Iowa Electronic Markets

The Daily Iowan:
UI electronic market beats polls

Researchers in the UI Tippie College of Business announced on Thursday they have determined that since the market’s founding in 1988, it has been more useful than polls for those attempting to predict which presidential hopefuls will succeed in their White House bids.

Joyce Berg, a UI associate professor of accounting and the market’s director, said there are several reasons the market’s results are on average 74 percent closer to actual presidential-nomination contests and general-election results than are opinion polls.

The Iowa Electronic Markets have a good track record going, and if you google this business, you’ll see that for yourself. I’m posting this because, every time I have mentioned this tool to people, they have no clue what I’m babbling about. So, I’m trying to spread the word. I do wish that the researchers could add some kind of RSS feed to this site to make it a little more accessible.

At the link below, you can see the prices at which the futures are trading. This gives you the investors’ views of the probability that a presidential candidate will win.
2008 Presidential Nomination Markets

As of 2/14/08, here are the last prices:

  • McCain’s was 0.933
  • Huckabee’s was 0.009
  • Obama’s was 0.680
  • Clinton’s was 0.310

So, as far I as can gather, the investors are now projecting that McCain and Obama will win. Let’s see whether they are correct in the long run.

For more info, see Slate.com’s guide to political markets.

-MC Spanky McGee

Vote Today It’s Super Tuesday

Vote Today Super Tuesday
*simulated image

We at The Trump would like to pass a friendly reminder to those in the various states holding their 2008 presidential primary elections today. We will not tell you who to vote for by sending you to this article and will leave you to choose for yourself whether you are a Democrat or Republican or neither.

This election gives you many to choose from, none of which are named George Bush or Dick Chaney. You won’t get the man that won lost years ago and now makes power point presentations for money, Al Gore. You won’t get John Kerry, Jonathan Edwards, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, or Ross Perot this time around. The mayor Rudi Giuliani and the Governor Bill Richardson are no longer there either. Even Stephen Colbert is out of the race too. Former President Bill Clinton can only become the first husband as he has already served two terms. What’s left is Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democrats and John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney for the Republicans…oh and Ron Paul too.

If you cannot decide you can always take the advice of Montgomery Brewster and “Vote None of the Above” or just write in Grown Pumpkin and hope for the best.